WINDSOR · 20:30 · CLASS 6

3YO Handicap
1m 2f · Good to firm

Seven active runners after one non-runner. Probabilities combine the supplied market, recent form and records in the Odds Finder database.

Most likely winnerTakeitorleaveit

Closest dangerTime To Sparkle

Best outsider profileGive Me Sun

ConfidenceModerate

THE VERDICT

Takeitorleaveit leads,
but this is not a certainty.

The strongest combination is recent form, two wins from four stored starts, a settled Rob Hornby partnership and previous Windsor/good-to-firm experience. Time To Sparkle is the main threat after improving over this trip. The short prices mean the most likely horse is not automatically a good-value bet.

MODEL RANKING

Runner by runner

Probabilities total 100%

1(8)

Takeitorleaveit

Rob Hornby · Jonathan Portman · Form 172221

2 wins / 4 storedWindsor experienceStrong recent form

Market 2/134%Fair odds 1.94/1

5(2)

Time To Sparkle

Jack Mitchell · James Keane · Form 491532

1 win / 8 storedTrip evidenceImproving form

Market 5/225%Fair odds 3/1

8(5)

Give Me Sun

Benoit de la Sayette · Patrick Owens · Form 75-933

Placed recentlyConsistent profileTrip uncertainty

Market 6/114%Fair odds 6.14/1

2(4)

Katalyst

Ryan Kavanagh · William Muir & Chris Grassick · Form -64002

Latest second0 wins / 7 storedNeeds another step

Market 13/211%Fair odds 8.09/1

4(3)

Rugby Union

Oisin Murphy · Gemma Tutty · Form 09-059

Elite jockey formWeak horse recordNew questions

Market 9/17%Fair odds 13.29/1

6(7)

Sweep In Time

David Egan · Tom Clover · Form 595-4

Stable 11.2% winsUnplaced stored formPrice drift noted

Market 9/1–11/16%Fair odds 15.67/1

7(6)

Thomas Picton

Rose Dawes · Jack Channon · Form 0707

Windsor experience0 places / 4 storedNo supplied price

Price unavailable3%Fair odds 32.33/1

CONNECTIONS

Stored strike rates

Runner	Jockey win / place	Trainer win / place	Horse stored record
Takeitorleaveit	11.4% / 31.9%	13.3% / 40.7%	2 wins, 2 places / 4
Time To Sparkle	11.7% / 42.0%	7.1% / 35.7%	1 win, 2 places / 8
Give Me Sun	12.7% / 35.8%	5.4% / 10.8%	0 wins, 1 place / 4
Katalyst	10.4% / 37.5%	10.0% / 35.3%	0 wins, 0 places / 7
Rugby Union	21.5% / 48.1%	10.1% / 31.2%	0 wins, 0 places / 3
Sweep In Time	11.2% / 36.4%	11.2% / 38.8%	0 wins, 0 places / 3
Thomas Picton	14.8% / 29.5%	11.2% / 39.9%	0 wins, 0 places / 4

Stored statistics cover the imported period through 27 May 2026, not the jockeys’ or trainers’ complete careers.

NON-RUNNERMy Old Mate · stall 1 · Rossa Ryan · G & J Moore

Removed from all probabilities. The supplied EVS price and Rule 4 notice are not treated as an active runner price. Confirm final deductions with the bookmaker.

How the estimate was made

Convert supplied active-runner prices to implied probabilities and remove market overround.
Apply evidence adjustments for recent finishing sequence, stored horse record, going/distance/course evidence and jockey/trainer strike rates.
Normalise all seven active runners back to exactly 100%.

This is an analytical estimate, not a guarantee or betting instruction. The small horse samples make uncertainty substantial.